TATTERSALLS IRELAND NOVICES HURDLE PREVIEW BY ANDY HOLDING
LEOPARDSTOWN, SUNDAY FEBRUARY 1
A big weekend ahead, with events at Leopardstown likely to see some of the last pieces to the Cheltenham festival puzzles put in place and judged on recent evidence, this is when Willie Mullins really comes to the party.
For majority of the season, the master of Closutton has had to wait in the wings while his arch rival, Gordon Elliott, has carried all before him but 17 winners from his last 55 runners strongly suggest his horses will be the dominant force over the two days at the Dublin venue.
In contrast, Elliott is 3-63 at time of writing and because of this dramatic shift in power since the turn of the New year, some of the races, particularly the novice events, are worth delving in to in a bid to search for some value in the current ante post markets.
The big Grade 1 for two-mile novice hurdlers on the second day currently has a list of 24 runners but is easy to put a fork in many of the potential participants and also highlight plenty who are likely to have alternative plans.
Talk The Talk looks a definite runner and he rates a worthy favourite based on the probability he would have won but for falling at the last in a similar contest over the C&D at the Christmas meeting.
The only issue with Joseph O’Brien’s potential star, however, would be the prospect of heavy ground – which isn’t out of the question given the impending weather forecast for this week – and at top price 11-8 currently, he has to be overlooked.
As mentioned, Gordon Elliott’s team are hardly in the greatest touch heading into the weekend and that way of thinking puts a slight dampener on the chances of Ballyfad.
Unbeaten in four starts, he beat a reasonably good field over the C&D at the Christmas meeting but the fact his time was seven seconds slower than the juvenile contest won by Narcisco Has suggested he very much had the run of the race out in front and combined with his trainer form, he is also given a wide berth at the prices.
Stable mate, Skylight Hustle, ended up being the beneficiary of Talk The Talk’s demise at Christmas and wouldn’t be out of place in this similar heat, but all the chat afterwards suggested he would be campaigned over further for the rest of the season, so there is a strong possibility he won’t be ask to repeat the dose.
By all accounts, the big talking horse, El Carios, goes for a maiden hurdle in a bid to regain his confidence and he will likely prove to be the number one Supreme hope for Cullentra come March should he come through that examination unscathed.
Of the others, Blake was slightly unlucky not to land the Royal Bond earlier in the season but that form doesn’t look strong enough and, in any case, heavy ground would also be a concern for his prospects.
The likes of Starting Fifteen and Road Exile don’t look good enough, while Mister Pessimistic and Koktail Brut had their limitations exposed in the Grade 1 here over Christmas.
Carrigmoornaspruce and Switch For Diesel are both very smart mares but they would surely be better off against their own ex on all known evidence.
On to Willie Mullins then, and considering he has landed this prize nine times in the last 10 years, it surely pays to follow that trend and side with one of his representatives in this season’s renewal.
Knowing which one Paul Townend will ride at this stage would be handy but it is worth pointing out that the stable jockey has got it wrong twice in recent times and Danny Mullins has proven to be more than capable of capitalising in the past.
Unlike in previous years when a definitive pecking order has been established, that hasn’t been the case this season but even so, it would come as something of a shock if the champion jockey wasn’t on either KING RASKO GREY or The Reverend.
Having ridden the latter to victory at Cork on his hurdles debut, the fact he has already got a feel for the ex-William Haggas-trained Flat performer in the heat of battle might help him make his final decision but time may tell the former has the stronger credentials for the task at hand.
Bought for 250k as a three-year-old store, the son of Galiway ran nicely on his first two starts in bumpers but it was his first outing over hurdles at Limerick that really suggested he was worth the purchase price.
In what looked a tasty novice event on paper beforehand, the six-year-old travelled supremely well throughout and despite getting in a little tight to the last, he found a smart turn of foot in the conditions to pull readily clear of his rivals.
Since that smooth success, the runner-up, Shuttle Diplomacy, and fourth, I Started A Joke, have both gone on to prove the value of the form and considering he appeared to win with a ton in hand at a time when his stable was struggling for winners, his effort deserves upgrading.
The fact he has already posted a useful speed figure on proper heavy ground will stand him in fine stead should similar conditions prevail this weekend and at the current prices, he makes plenty of appeal as a solid each-way alternative to Talk The Talk, Townend or no Townend.
Of the other Closutton-based runners, Sober will have improve his jumping if he is to fulfil his potential at Grade 1 level, while the ground will be a complete unknown for Davy Crockett should he be asked to face the starter.
Le Divin Enfant was well beaten in the Grade 1 here over Christmas and has plenty to find, and the likes of Sortudo and Saint Baco are more two-and-a-half milers.
KING RASKO GREY – 2-points each-way@5-1