DAILY RACING PREVIEW BY ANDY HOLDING
THURSDAY DECEMBER 26
12.45 KEMPTON
The race won by Kalif Du Berlais at Newbury a month ago is turning out to be one of the strongest form lines of its kind so far this season and ASTA LA PASTA (NAP) (best price 11-4) looks set to continue that trend in this similar contest.
While pace setters Myretown and Personal Ambition rutted their antlers at the head of affairs, Harry Skelton seemed content to bide his time languishing in the rear on his mount for the first part of the contest and although he made up a significant amount of ground in the final half a mile, in hindsight, he was just given too much to do.
However, looking at his circuit sectionals in comparison with the winner (3.06.8 against 3.07.8), he easily came out the best horse in the race and with the form boosted by the likes of Personal Ambition (unlucky not to land a Grade 2), Tapley and Moulins Clermont since, it’s safe to say he ran way better than the bare result suggested.
Based on the data, he simply must be some way better than his current rating of 130 and providing he is ridden with a view to keeping in touch with the main players, predominantly likely front runner, Range, it would be disappointing to say the least if Dan Skelton’s inmate didn’t play a huge role in the outcome.
ASTA LA PASTA – 2pt win@11-4
12.58 LIMERICK
Messrs Mullins and Elliott have their usual strong representation in this maiden hurdle, but AUTOPORTRAIT (best price 10-3) might prove good enough to upset the status quo following his promising Irish debut at Navan earlier in the month.
Having his first outing for 431 days, Mouse Morris’ gelding played his part in forcing a decent gallop from the outset at the Meath circuit and although he eventually came out on top of the three who initiated the useful speed figure, he ultimately failed to cope with the more patiently ridden, Gorailbhmaithagat.
Looking a bit more in depth at the data that day, it’s worth pointing out the front two – who pulled well clear of the rest – recorded quicker overall and circuit times than the likes of The Yellow Clay and Jasmin De Vaux on the same card and based on the form, he sets a decent standard.
Likely to be all the wiser for that initial experience, another positive ride can see this future chasing type go close to shedding his maiden tag.
AUTOPORTRAIT – 1-point win@10-3
1.05 AINTREE
A race that brings together a nice gathering of promising novices and it’s likely to be a strongly run affair with confirmed front runners, Roadlesstravelled, Celtic Dino and Miami Magic in the line-up.
Potters Charm could easily be the chief beneficiary of a pace collapse given that he has proven he stays behind two miles well but so too has COUNTRY MILE (best price 9-2) and at the prices, Dan Skelton’s gelding rates the value call.
Last time out at Cheltenham he looked better than ever, cruising to victory after being held up off strong fractions and if it wasn’t for notable errors at the final two hurdles at Haydock the time before, he might have given his old rival Roadlesstravelled even more to think about.
Moreover, today’s more favourable conditions give him bright prospects of turning around the form and the five-year-old, the final choice of his trainer’s three original entries (Royal Infantry and The New Lion being the other pair), looks to have plenty in his favour.
COUNTRY MILE – 1-point each-way@9-2 (three places)
1.47 MARKET RASEN
O’CONNELL (best price 9-2) didn’t quite get home when a close-up fourth in this race last season, but a year on, and a stronger, more mature version of the son of Westerner might bring about a different result.
The eight-year-old arrived at the Lincolnshire venue twelve months ago a well-backed favourite following two solid efforts at the track previously and for nine tenths of the journey, he looked as though he would justify his position in the market.
However, he ended up getting worried out of the argument late on after travelling best throughout and you just wondered whether trips beyond three miles might always cause a concern for him long term.
Based on subsequent events, particularly his performance on his latest offering at Carlisle recently for which stamina gained the day, Joel Parkinson & Sue Smith’s inmate seems to have provided an alternative view, and he rates the most obvious threat to the in-form course winner. Kelce, who probably just about deserves to be favourite based on his overall profile.
O’CONNELL – 1-point each-way@9-2