DAILY RACING PREVIEW BY ANDY HOLDING
TUESDAY MARCH 10
It’s safe to say, the old grey matter isn’t what it was many moons ago, but as a punter who has been attending Cheltenham festivals since the mid-80’s, even I can’t remember a meeting with so many wide-open races.
The main championship Grade 1 novice events, in particular, have an unusually competitive feel about them, highlighted by the fact the betting for both the Turners (22 runners) and Brown Advisory (16 runners) are going to be somewhere around the 4-1 the field mark.
The other thing to notice too, unlike in many previous years, Willie Mullins doesn’t appear to have any standout novice hurdlers, which is adding to the general feel that anything can win the three main events run during the four days.
The shortest priced favourite of the trio in question comes up in the very first race of the meeting, The Supreme Novices Hurdle (1.20), and while Old Park Star is just about entitled to be top of the tree, he is by no means a good thing by any stretch of the imagination.
The old saying “he has done very little wrong” gets banded around like confetti but in his case, it is hard to knock what he achieved – particularly on his last two starts – and there is no doubt he has way more to offer both in the short term and as a long-term chaser.
His speed figures, both at Haydock last time and Cheltenham previously, have been on par with what we, at andyholdingspeedfigures.co.uk, would normally expect from a Supreme candidate to have achieved but up to now, he has yet to do anything exceptional.
Of course, he has the potential to take his game to the next level, but up against what appears a field of similarly progressive types, he looks on the short side for my liking.
MIGHTY PARK is arguably the biggest unknown quantity in the entire field, but at least the number he achieved when winning on rules debut at Fairyhouse suggests he is not all about the hype.
According to our calculations, his speed figure in winning by a wide margin at the Meath venue was comparable to Old Park Star’s success at Graded level at Haydock and he could have clearly gone much quicker if fully extended.
Whether he can produce a similar performance on just his second outing over hurdles and under the most intense of environments only time will tell, but he is trained by a genius who has won this race eight times since 1995 and the noises coming from the Closutton camp indicate he could be up there with some of the best they have run here.
Another who has posted two very smart time figures is Sober Glory and, as result, he probably deserves to be a good bit shorter in the market than his current position affords him.
A keen-going sort who is likely to be allowed his head early, the only question mark over his prospects lies at the hands of the ground, as all his best performance have come on a testing surface.
Talk The Talk has proven himself in a well-run contest when would have won at Leopardstown over Christmas but for a fall and, in a slowly run version back at the same track last time out.
From where he was at the second last, only a really good one could have run down the likes of King Rasko Grey and Ballyfad and it has to be significant that connections are adamant this is his race rather than tackle the Turners over a trip that looked sure to suit based on the way he finishes off his races.
Up to now, El Cairos hasn’t been in a truly run affair, making him very hard to judge, and at the prices, he is passed over in favour of MYDADDYPADDY as the alternative to Mighty Park.
He had a big reputation heading into his latest encounter, the Grade 1 Formby Hurdle at Aintree, and although he failed in his bid to maintain his unbeaten record, the speed figure he achieved in defeat pointed towards him running to a much higher level than in victory.
Time may tell, there was no shame in being beaten by Idaho Sun – who would have been an automatic selection if he had made the gig – and this strong travelling five-year-old can creep his way into contention to hold every chance swinging for home.
MIGHTY PARK – 1-point win@11-2
MYDADDYPADDY – 1-point win@8-1
The Arkle (2.00) has a proper old school feel about it, with two powerhouses clashing head-to-head just like in the days when we had Noddy’s Rype v Bobsline doing battle over the two-mile trip.
It is hard to split Lulamba and Kopek Des Bordes in terms pure ability, it will just probably all boil down to who makes the fewest errors on the day.
What we can say for definite, though, Nicky Henderson’s inmate brings forward more experience over fences to the party and his proven ability to recover from the odd mistake, like he did at Newbury, might just turn out to be the defining factor.
Of those who could pick up the pieces for a larger slice of the pie than predicted, Jax Junior makes a reasonable amount of appeal as a viable proposition in some of the exotic markets.
Likely to be ridden with a view to not get involved in any of the early skirmishes, Lucy Wadham’s inmate is easily one of the best jumpers in the field and with ground to suit, you could make a case out for him in the ‘without the favourite’ and ‘place only’ markets.
The Fred Winter (2.40) has been a good race for the layers since its inception, but there have been several more favourable results for punters in recent times, particularly if you have been following gambles trained by Joseph O’Brien.
The Curragh handler has Glen To Glen and Dignam doing duty this year and both have to be respected.
Gordon Elliott also knows what it takes to capture this prize, so his pair, Barbizon and Hardy Stuff are worth more than a second glance along with Padraig Roche, who got on the scoreboard with Brazil a few years ago
The Co Kildare handler has the well-fancied Saratoga in this year’s renewal and he shaped well in a race at Naas that has supplied the likes of Brazil, Puturhandstogether, Jazzy Matty and Aramax before winning here.
By contrast, Nicky Henderson hasn’t had a runner in the race since Palladium was pulled up as favourite in 2022 but the fact the Lambourn handler has two strongly fancied runners in this year’s renewal is significant.
The former was a warm order to beat his elders in the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices Hurdle at Kempton recently and although he failed in his bid to justify favouritism, his reputation was in no tarnished.
On reflection, he was probably given too much to do at the Sunbury venue, having been taken back early by design, but he impressed with the way he stayed on in the latter stages to finish a never-nearer third, shaping as though a stiffer examination would play more into strengths.
Seemingly not too badly treated off an opening mark of 129, Nicky Henderson’s inmate has the class to feature with normal luck in running.
The latter shaped really well on her UK debut at Doncaster back in January before going one place better in The Victor Ludorum at Haydock last time out and although that victory may have appeared a straightforward one on paper, it was anything but.
As we know, Haydock is a real haven for front runners on the hurdles course and when main market rival Pourquoi Pa Papa kicked and went clear three out, she looked to have too much to do.
The fact she managed to cut down Paul Nicholl’s inmate with relative ease says a lot for her attitude and class and having been handed a workable opening mark of 130, the decision to come here rather than tackle the Triumph later in the week looks one built out of good sense.
MUSTANG DU BREUIL – 1-point each-way@12-1 (six places)
MANLAGA – 1-point each-way@7-1 (five places)
Nicky Henderson is often associated with horses with speed, but two wins and seven placed in the Ultima (3.20) over the years suggests the Lambourn maestro knows what he is doing when it comes to big-field staying handicaps and HYLAND can add his name to the list of impressive results.
Importantly, the nine-year-old loves Cheltenham, as three wins from five runs testifies, and even though one of his two disappointments at the track came in a similar race at the November meeting, it was his first run for seven months.
Since then, he has gone on to run creditably in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury and last time out at Ascot he would have gone very close to winning but for uprooting the second last.
The son of Turgeon can sometimes race a bit behind the bridle, so the addition of the first-time cheekpieces is a welcome sight and on ground he prefers, he has excellent claims of filling one of the six places offered by most bookmakers.
Another who has taken well to the track is LEAVE OF ABSENSE and he comes into the mix on several counts.
Firstly, he is an unexposed second season novice (who often do well in this race) and secondly, he also likes decent ground.
A surprising gamble on heavy ground in the Grade 2 Denman Chase at Newbury last time out, he actually ran really well under the circumstances (looked dangerous three out), and that run should put his spot on for a tilt at this prize.
HYLAND – ½ point each-way@10-1 (six places)
LEAVE OF ABSENSE – ½ point each-way@18-1 (six places)
Arguably not a vintage Champion Hurdle (4.00) but an intriguing one all the same, spiced up no end by connections of Lossiemouth making the right call and running the grey mare here instead of taking the easier option of the Mares Hurdle – albeit that was no gimme against Wodhooh.
It has to be a case of now or never for Willie Mullins’ mare, while still in the peak of her powers and the decision to go for glory may all boil down to whether the first-time pieces ignite the fire sufficiently enough over a trip short of her best (3-6 over two miles).
Of her main opposition, there are more reasons not to back them rather than make out solid cases, so similar to last season, there could well be a shock in store in the shape of ALEXEI.
Easily one of the most improved two-mile hurdlers in training, Jow Tizzard’s inmate has gone from humble beginnings of a mark of 127 to where he is now on 148 and his victory over Rubaud in the Kingwell Hurdle last time suggests he is well worth his place in today’s field.
Although only winning by just over a length, the son of Tai Chi left the impression he spent the whole length of the run-in dossing and gawping at the crowd towards the stands side hedge and on ground that was far from ideal, his performance was arguably far better than the bare result implied.
The way he travelled before quickening right away from his field in The Greatwood Hurdle over the C&D earlier in the season was achieved in a very fast time and the strong gallop likely to be set by Tutti Quanti should allow Brendan Powell to creep his way into the business end with some sort of hope from two out.
ALEXEI – ½ point win@20-1
ALEXEI – 2-points win@20/21 top five finish with bet365
Quite a few plausible angles into this complex-looking 2m5f handicap chase (4.40) and it is easy to see why McLaurey and Madara have been on punters’ radar based on how they have both been campaigned.
The former, in particular, has a The Shunter II feel about him and it would come as no surprise if he were to follow suit in this race under the application of cash.
Away from the glaringly obvious, ZURICH and NO QUESTIONS ASKED both have enough quality to make their presence felt and, at the prices, they are taken against the field.
The former has already proven he copes with the track with a game victory over C&D earlier in the season and the speed figure he produced suggested he was operating at a fair level.
Third at Doncaster when last seen, the race didn’t provide Henry De Bromhead’s inmate the true test he desires but back in a well-run environment at the scene of his career high can see the son of Doctor Dino follow in the footsteps of many previous second season novices.
The latter is another novice with a touch of quality and this race seems a much more sensible option than taking on the likes of Kopek Des Bordes and Lulamba in the Arkle.
Ben Pauling’s inmate also had an engagement in the Grand Annual, but with Vanderpoel doing duty in that two-mile handicap, the eight-year-old was the one of the pair asked to stretch out in trip and his effort over 2m4f in the Grade 2 John Francome Novices Chase earlier in the campaign reads well in the context of today’s race.
Admittedly, his only real disappointment came when down the field in last year’s Martin Pipe, but he seems a better horse mentally on the evidence of this season’s performances and good ground and a strong pace will suit.
ZURICH – 1/2 point each-way@11-1 (five places)
NO QUESTIONS ASKED – ½ point each-way@14-1 (six places)
NEWTON TORNADO has already been advised (1pt each-way@7-1) in the concluding National Hunt Chase (5.20) and there appears to be no obvious reason why Rebecca Curtis’ inmate won’t go well following even more recent form boosts to the Doncaster win courtesy of Ki Woo and As Legends Have It (Chasingouttheblues and Noble Park already won).