DAILY RACING PREVIEW BY ANDY HOLDING
SUNDAY OCTOBER 4
1.47 LONGCHAMP
Highfield Princess and Mabs Cross have defied double figure draws to land this Group 1 sprint in recent times but by and large, a low stall next to the nearside rail has proved more favourable and the two who make the most appeal at the prices having come out well off in the ballot are home-based pair, SHIRI and AFJAN.
The former could never lay a glove on Naana’s Shadow over today’s C&D last time out but whereas her conqueror has gone and bagged stall 14 of 15, Francis Graffard’s filly has been handed a decent gate four away from the rail.
Presuming Pontoss, a confirmed trailblazer does his usual party trick, the race should develop over towards the nearside rail and providing the daughter of Mehmas can hold her position and stay in touch to halfway, she should be in a the right place to pounce late on.
The same theory surrounds the prospects of the latter, albeit he does take a bit more explaining.
The three-year-old colt has yet to win so far this season, which is a bit disconcerting, but it is worth pointing out, he has run really well on all three starts over today’s C&D and he didn’t perform too badly from a moderate draw in this race last year as a two-year-old.
Moreover, he came well clear of the rest when chasing home the top-class filly, Rayevka, back in May and although he only finished with two behind him at Chantilly last time out, he encountered plenty of bad luck in running.
Housed in stall 2 with a strong pace to follow, Henri-Francois Devin’s inmate is fancied to outperform many of those priced up shorter than him in the betting.
SHIRI – 1-point win@5-1
AFJAN – ½ point each-way@28-1 (four places)
3.05 CURRAGH
Ado McGuinness gave a reminder to everyone at Newmarket last weekend that he is still relevant when it comes to big-field handicaps and JOHNNY SODA can add further evidence a week on in this competitive heat.
The son of Cotai has progressed gradually throughout the season and his only modest run of note cam when found a mile on quick ground an insufficient test here two starts ago.
Since then, his effort when staying on strongly for third in a premier handicap over 1m2f showed off his true worth and with the form working out in accordance with the speed figure, this sort of test under the prevailing conditions should allow him to excel.
JOHNNY SODA – 1-point each-way@4-1 (four places)
3.05 LONGCHAMP
Since 2013, fillies and mares have landed this prestigious prize no fewer than seven times and KALPANA and THUNDERING ON are easily good enough to keep that trend intact.
Andrew Balding’s filly undoubtably looks the most logical winner out of the pair, her victory in the King George arguably setting the standard regarding overall form levels and speed figures achieved by the main players this season.
Not quite so impressive at York when last seen, she might have been feeling the effects of such a hard race a month earlier on rain-softened ground and connections have deliberately freshened her up in the interim.
A creditable seventh in this race last season from a bad draw– the only time she has finished out of the first three – stall six should enable her to improve massively on that position and it would be fitting if she won for her handler, who has taken the season by storm domestically with over eight million in prize money.
If Andrew Balding has been the main man in the UK, Joseph O’Brien has easily been the best pound-for-pound over in Ireland, not to mention when sending runners over the Irish Sea, and his daughter of Frankel is highly likely to give a good account in her bid to add another Group 1 to her cv.
Silky smooth when battering her own sex in the Oaks back in June, the chestnut filly had several things count against her against the older fillies and mares back on home soil a few weeks later (coughing and ground), but returning to the scene of the crime last time out, all her old swagger was forthcoming.
At least ten lengths off the speed turning for home, the turn of foot she exhibited to cut down her field was a display of pure class and considering the ground was lively enough and trip short of her best, it was a performance that suggests she is in rare old form.
On the evidence of what we witnessed here at the Paris-based track yesterday, the conditions are a good deal softer than anticipated, much to the relief of her connections, and from a plumb draw, her price looks an insulting one given her class.
KALPANA – 1-point win@9-2
THUNDERING ON – 1-point win@8-1