DAILY RACING PREVIEW BY ANDY HOLDING
SATURDAY OCTOBER 10
2.05 YORK
Water To Wine is undoubtedly the sexiest horse in this field but the record of those drawn in the three widest stalls over this trip since 2015 is 1-135, so it goes without saying, the Gosden runner has plenty on his plate on handicap debut.
On the other end of the stick, SAY WHAT YOU SEE has been presented with a much more favourable draw and the combination of his consistency and course form make him one of the most attractive of the viable alternatives.
Only once out of the frame in his last 13 starts, Liam Bailey’s inmate maintained that splendid record with another excellent effort at Doncaster last time out and prior to that run, he filled out the same position in an equally competitive affair on The Knavesmire in a race that produced a big speed figure.
Since then, the winner, Plage De Havre, has gone on to score at listed level and is now rated 109 and with conditions likely to make today’s contest a proper test at the trip, the four-year-old grey’s confirmed stamina should hopefully have some bearing on the outcome.
SAY WHAT YOU SEE – ½ point each-way@18-1 (five places)
3.17 YORK
Toca Madera landed a touch when capturing the big sprint handicap here yesterday for David O’Meara and the Yorkshire handler looks to have a strong hand in today’s six-furlong affair with Pellitory and TOYOTOMI flying the flag for the in-form yard.
The pair both contested the two big Saturdays sprints at the Ayr Western meeting with the former landing the Gold Cup, while the latter finished an honourable third in the Silver Cup an hour earlier.
Pellitory has since gone on to prove his wellbeing with a run littered with bad luck at Ascot last weekend and he looks sure to go well back at a track where he has a decent record but a chance is taken on his stable mate gaining the bragging rights if taking to the Knavesmire at the first time of asking.
The way he finished off his race after losing ground at the start at the Scottish venue was indicative of a horse who continues to thrive and with a reasonable draw and conditions in his favour, Toyotomi can finally gain his due rewards.
TOYOTOMI – ½ point each-way@14-1 (six places)
3.40 NEWMARKET
Probably not the race it once was, largely due to the big bucks on offer for the Irish version two weeks prior but at least we have a full complement, unlike last season when there was a meagre 19 runners.
As events unfolded, Beylerbeyi was the beneficiary of a drop off numerically and in terms of class twelve months ago and following an excellent effort in chasing home subsequent Cadran hero, Caballo De Mar, at Group 2 level last time out, it wouldn’t be the biggest shock in the world if he were to go back-to-back.
The dogs have also been barking in the direction of last year’s runner-up Dawn Rising, and he is another to consider along with the likes of unexposed SEA LANTERN and MOUNTAIN ROAD.
The former is the big unknown quantity of the field, having only had the four starts, but there is a strong possibility he could be very well treated based on several factors, none more so than the anticipated improvement over today’s strip.
A big eyecatcher at Pontefract over 1m2f behind the potentially top-class Infraad earlier in the campaign, Brian Ellison’s inmate wasn’t seen out again until making mincemeat of his opposition on his return to the Yorkshire venue over two furlongs further last time out and with the with the speed figure speaking favourable of both performances, he will surely be dangerous if seeing out the trip off a mark of 89.
The latter is the other end of the spectrum, being a seven-year-old with 22 runs under his belt, but he seems to have improved since switching to Jim Goldie and at least we know he stays extremely well.
Indeed, there is a strong argument to be made he should have won his last three races had events panned out a little more in his favour and that view was never more present than his latest effort at York.
Miles off the pace turning for home on the Knavesmire, the son of Churchill kicked in the turbo down the straight to get within a length of the well-treated Small Fry, and with many smart stayers strung out in behind, it was a performance that commands respect in the context of today’s race.
SEA LANTERN – 1-point win@11-2
MOUNTAIN ROAD – ½ point win@11-1
4.45 SOUTHWELL
There isn’t much to separate R P MCMURPHY and Izzari on their previous clash over today’s C&D 14 days ago, but slight preference is for the former on account of his more favourable draw.
Although he was slightly better berthed than his old rival at the Midland venue, a tardy beginning rather got him further back than anticipated and despite him making up the lost ground to hold every chance a furlong out, the energy he expended in doing so ultimately cost him dear.
Prior to that solid performance, a cleaner break had led to him dominating a similar contest at Wolverhampton and providing he can replicate that display from stall 3, the four-year-old can keep intact his track stats that read 33332.
R P MCMURPHY – 1-point win@7-2