CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL REVIEW BY ANDY HOLDING
Such is the appetite for The Cheltenham festival nowadays, no sooner as one finishes and the dust settles, there is a real urge from punters to look towards next year’s four-day carnival and snaffle up the early value for all the championship events.
Bookmakers, of course, are quite happy to feed this hunger but at the same time, the layers are equally at their most vulnerable, often overlooking certain horses that deserve a good deal more respect than afforded in the aftermath.
Using the data available to analyse the performances from the festival can also be a good guide to finding the value, and there are one or two races that suggest certain horses have been underestimated in relation to what we might expect next season.
Lossiemouth, for instance, is priced up as 3-1 favourite for next year’s Champion Hurdle and that price might seem fair game for those who believe she only has to turn up in the same form to win again.
On the other hand, a closer inspection to the form and the way the race was run compared to the Supreme Novices Hurdle, strongly suggests the younger horses were much quicker and therefore, Willie Mullins’ mare might not be the good thing to follow up as most punters expect.
Like the previous season when Kopek Des Bordes posted the second fastest time of the festival behind Fact To File in the Ryanair, Old Park Star’s victory in the curtain raiser was usurped only by Gaelic Warrior’s scintillating success in the Gold Cup based on the numbers we have at andyholdingspeedfigures.co.uk.
Interestingly, Old Park Star ran the same two miles three seconds quicker than Lossiemouth, which suggests the first three home in the novice’s event are all top class and, in an ordinary year, they would have made a big impression if running in The Champion Hurdle.
Add into the mix, the fact improved handicapper, Alexei, would have finished second but for a bad blunder at the last, and the likes of Brighterdaysahead (who got beaten for the third straight year) at Cheltenham and The New Lion (who isn’t quick enough for two miles) are clearly not Champion Hurdle horses, the form looks brittle to say the least.
Under normal circumstances, you would be looking towards the likes of Old Park Star, Sober Glory and Mydaddaypaddy to take the natural step into open company next season, but reading the comments by all three sets of connections, each is likely to be sent over fences.
So, if those three end up going down the Arkle route, what is the play for next season’s Champion Hurdle?
Well, using Mydaddypaddy as a guide – and there is a big argument to say he would have nearly won the Supreme but for being hampered on the run-in – IDAHO SUN could easily turn out to be a be player in the two-mile division next season.
Harry Fry’s inmate, remember, easily beat Mydaddypaddy in emphatic fashion in a Grade 1 at Aintree back in December and was on course to have a crack at the Supreme but for meeting a late injury scare that prevented him from making his long-term plan.
Whether he races again this season at Aintree or Punchestown depends on how he recovers from the slight lameness that occurred after he galloped at Wincanton pre-Cheltenham but presuming all is well and he lines up for one of the Grade 1’s over two miles, he will surely be one of the main fancies to end his season on a high.
If he doesn’t recover in time and he ends up being sent out to the paddocks for the summer, the time spent letting the healing process take its course can hardly be described as a bad thing and hopefully, the son of Idaho will come back bigger and stronger than he was as a novice.
All his data prior to Cheltenham suggested he was one of the most underestimated horses in the field for the Supreme and on a line through the third, there is a strong possibility he would have had a big say in the outcome.
With that in mind, there is no way the talented six-year-old should be a 50-1 for next year’s Champion Hurdle in anyone’s money and unlike a good deal in his division this season, he is far more likely to stay over hurdles.
IDAHO SUN – ½ point each-way@50-1 (2027 Champion Hurdle)
One of the other races where bookmakers are often at sixes and sevens is The Ryanair and like this season, it is a job just trying to work out who might go where, let alone producing a selection.
Obviously, there is a good deal of water to go under the bridge between now and then and much depends on how Fact To File is campaigned next season.
The way he beat Gaelic Warrior in the Irish Gold Cup was one of the performances of this season and it would have been interesting to see how he would have fared at Cheltenham if he had been a late supplement for the Gold Cup itself.
I must admit, 20-1 for next year’s blue riband is very tempting and I could have easily added him to the list as potential long-term bet.
However, he is just as likely to stay over 2m4f in a bid to regain his Ryanair crown and in the end, I have decided to look elsewhere for the value in the same race.
As we witnessed again at Cheltenham this year, Henry De Bromhead is deadly in the race over the intermediate distance, with Heart Wood adding his name to Balko Des Flos and Envoi Allen in recent times and it would come as no surprise to see the former a prominent force in the division next season.
However, based on the way KOKTAIL DIVIN tanked his way through the Brown Advisory at the festival, he could easily turn out to be the pick of the De Bromhead team and at his current odds of 25-1, he is a bit of a non-brainer.
There was much deliberation by connections in the build up to the festival whether the son of Masked Marvel should stay over 2m5f and tackle the handicappers in the Jack Richards or be asked to stretch out over 3m1f against the Grade 1 horses in the Brown Advisory.
As events panned out, the seven-year-old did not see out the trip in the latter contest, but the way he travelled for nine tenths of the journey justified their decision to a small degree.
On the evidence of his display at Cheltenham there is little doubt he is a Grade 1 horse in the making, and he is also likely to realise those beliefs over distances shy of three miles.
Even at this stage, the Ryanair seems likely to be the most obvious destination, and there is a strong possibility he will start off next season in the John Durkan Chase.
Should he come through that test in flying colours, one more run in the New Year should be good enough to put the last touches to his preparations and then all roads will hopefully lead to the Ryanair.
KOKTAIL DIVIN – ½ point each-way@25-1 (2027 Ryanair)