DAILY RACING PREVIEW BY ANDY HOLDING
FRIDAY APRIL 4
1.45 AINTREE
Similar to the first race here today, the classic conundrum for punters choosing between Cheltenham festival form or horses who have been saved especially for Aintree and those leaning towards the latter option will be focusing on Handstands to justify the decision to skip the Brown Advisory and come here fresh.
After falling on his chase debut, two Grade 2 victories were further enhanced with his first Grade 1 triumph in the Scilly Isles at Sandown last time out and with runner-up, Jango Baie, going on to advertise the form in no uncertain terms at Cheltenham, it makes perfect sense why Ben Pauling’s inmate is strongly fancied to follow a similar path.
Already a proven winner over three miles, this sound jumper with a likeable attitude has plenty in his favour.
In contrast, Caldwell Potter goes into unknown territory trip-wise and, for one who showed so much speed at Cheltenham, that has to be a slight concern.
On the flip side of that argument, his jumping is a total delight and providing Harry Cobden can get some well-needed breathers in on the bends, he might have half a chance of lasting it out from the front.
Of the rest, Dancing City looked painfully slow at Cheltenham and under the prevailed conditions, it’s hard to be confident he can maintain Willie Mullins’ tremendous start to the meeting, while the likes of Jordans and The Changing Man need to raise their game for Grade 1 level.
2.20 AINTREE
Kopeck De Mee remains a difficult one to decipher and unless you are of an extremely forgiving nature, it’s hard to make a strong case backing him around the 6-1 mark, despite his yard form.
Be Aware was slightly disappointing at Cheltenham and is also unproven over the trip at this sort of level, while the likes of Favour And Fortune and Helnwein have stamina concerns.
Of those away from the front end of the market, there might be some value to be had with both WELLINGTON ARCH (best price 16-1) and BLENKINSOP (best price 33-1), as they represent a strong piece of form at Uttoxeter last month.
The former fared slightly better of the pair by chasing home the well-backed Hidden Heroics and with the data suggesting his last circuit increase in pace was the main reason why the speed figure was so strong, he deserves plenty of credit for that effort.
Although he made the running that day and, in the past, he might be best served just hanging back out of the likely skirmish for the lead and if his energy can be distributed a little more evenly this time, there’s a decent chance Jonjo & A J O’Neill’s inmate can outrun his odds.
The latter was easily the biggest eye-catcher at the Midland venue and his odds make so sense whatsoever.
Badly needing his first run for two years at Wetherby back in February, Henry Daly’s inmate looked more in tune with events 20 days ago and given the way he stayed on strongest of all from three out, he looks to be coming to the boil nicely.
A multiple winner three years ago, only three miles on soft ground in a Grade 1 derailed his season and off what looks a lenient mark on the pick of his old form, the eight-year-old might just have another big day in him yet.
WELLINGTON ARCH – ½ point each-way@16-1 (six places)
BLENKINSOP – ½ point each-way@33-1 (six places)
2.55 AINTREE
The strongest race based on the data at Cheltenham was the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Romeo Coolio rates a solid favourite to fly the flag for the curtain raiser at the festival a month ago.
Left in the lead when the front running Workahead fainted earlier than anticipated, Gordon Elliott’s inmate ultimately paid for his mid-race exertions in the pull to the line but even allowing for the fact he got beaten seven lengths, his time figure suggested he would have won the Champion Hurdle – given the way that race unfolded.
Easily the best horse in this field based on all known evidence, only a massive drop off due to possible tiredness in his legs from that encounter a month ago can prevent him from ending his season on a high.
Salvantor Mundi was rank keen in the Supreme, so hope he can provide the Mullins camp with another winner rests on him settling much better.
The main two who side-stepped Cheltenham appear to be Tripoli Flyer and Jet To Vegas and of the pair, it would come as little surprise to this writer if the latter were to outrun his odds.
Lucinda Russell’s inmate did plenty wrong at Kelso last time and yet still won in the style of a progressive type and the faster they go, the better his chances (of settling) will be.
3.30 AINTREE
An unappealing betting race with slight question marks over the main players and the only advice would be to put all four in your Placepot perm and hope the jack comes up with Matata – which wouldn’t be the biggest mythical in the world in any case.
4.05 AINTREE
A race arguably just as hard to find the winner as the National itself but there is a strong case to be made for both MARBLE SANDS (best price 16-1) and SHANTREUSSE (best price 16-1) featuring on the pick of their best form.
The former looks to have been saved especially for this after running better than the bare result suggests at Musselburgh (lost his place with a slow jump early) when last seen over fences and his run on the Flat a month ago served the purpose of keeping the juices flowing.
A listed winner over fences who stays beyond 2m4f, this unexposed grey has many attributes of many previous winners of this race and he deserves to be played accordingly.
The latter can be considered desperately unlucky in this race last season and, following a useful effort at Navan last time out, he comes here primed in his bid to try and make amends.
Jumping and travelling well just behind the leaders twelve months ago, Henry De Bromhead’s gelding lost any chance he might have had when sprawling badly on landing at the one after Valentine’s Brook and in the circumstances, he did remarkably well to finish a respectable seventh.
Very likely to have had this race as his main target, his light campaign ensures he comes here fresher than most and even though stable mate Amirite is the stronger fancied according to the market, it would come as no surprise if he were to prove the better of the pair.
MARBLE SANDS – ½ point each-way@18-1 (six places)
SHANTREUSSE – ½ point each-way@14-1 (six places)
4.40 AINTREE
CALIFET EN VOL (NAP) (best price 4-1), win lose or draw, is one of the nicest long-term prospects in this field and despite his lack of experience in races of the nature, he can back up that view hailing from a stable who have a fine record with similar types down the years (Champ, Santini and Beat That).
His runner-up spot behind subsequent Turner’s winner, The New Lion, reads even better than it did at the time and based on the numbers, he surpassed that effort and some with victory in the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon last time.
The first of the ‘big three’ in the market to come off the bridle at the Cambridgeshire venue, Nicky Henderson’s inmate stayed on strongly to claim the spoils close home and with the overall time figure and final lap sectionals pointing towards the race being an above-average renewal, he is fully entitled to take his chance at this level.
Although he is clearly no slouch, he left the impression he will relish an even more severe test of stamina in future and with this race likely to presenting him with that sort of environment, the son of Califet should prove equal to the task.
Mister Meggit, not seen out since his silky-smooth success over this course back in November looks the main threat.
CALIFET EN VOL – 1-point win@4-1
5.15 AINTREE
A particularly gritty-looking handicap to conclude the card but the safest option might be to go for two confirmed fast ground, lightly-raced performers in the shape of CELTIC DINO (best price 15-2) and JACK HYDE (best price 11-1).
The former bounced off the fast ground when scoring at Wincanton earlier in the campaign, clocking a smart time figure in the process, and his last two performances, in Grade 2 and Grade 1 contests respectively, have suggested he remains on the improve.
Although he has made the running in the past, he doesn’t necessarily have to lead and having already proven himself around the contours of this venue, the son of Doctor Dino looks poised to go big.
The latter arrives here on a crest of a wave and both his two victories, stylish on the eye, have been backed up by excellent speed figures.
A horse with a good cruising speed for two miles and the stamina to stay further, that good combination around here and a mark of 122 probably still underestimates his true worth.
CELTIC DINO – 1-point each-way@15-2 (five places)
JACK HYDE – 1-point each-way@11-1 (five paces)