DAILY RACING PREVIEW BY ANDY HOLDING
SATURDAY JUNE 7
1.10 PUNCHESTOWN
BELLE THE TIGRESS (best price 10-3) may not have beaten much at Clonmel last time out, but it was a victory that provided a small snapshot of things to come and under similar conditions, Henry De Bromhead’s grey can continue her rise through the ranks.
A massive eye-catcher in a quality mares maiden hurdle at Naas back in December, the five-year-old was thoroughly expected to take advantage of what appeared a much weaker race on paper at Gowran next time, but the combination of heavy ground and her yard being bang out of nick at the time was enough to see her fall well below the anticipated standard.
However, back on a decent surface and no clouds hanging over the Knockeen team, she duly made amends at the Co Tipperary venue and with the strong possibility her surface has only just begun to be scratched, the daughter of Jukebox Jury gains the confident vote.
BELLE THE TIGRESS – 1-point win@10-3
1.45 PUNCHESTOWN
DUTCH SCHULTZ (best price 10-3) ran out of his skin with a career high performance in a top-quality handicap over today’s C&D at the festival a month ago and a repeat of a similar level of form will see Gavin Cromwell’s gelding hard to beat on his return visit.
In a race run at a very strong pace, only a handful of the 23-strong field proved equal to the test and being one of the few, the eight-year-old surpassed his previous best speed figure by some margin.
Since then, the fifth horse, Aspire Tower, has gone on to boost the form and in this weaker affair, it would come as something of a surprise if he didn’t follow suit.
DUTCH SCHUTLZ – 1-point win@10-3
2.00 NAVAN
BAKER BLUE (best price 8-1) has shaped well on his two starts to date and with the green shoots of recovery from his stable now in full bloom, Jessica Harrington’s gelding has a better chance than his odds suggest of providing the Moone handler with her fourth winner of the week.
A promising third behind an Ascot-bound colt trained by Gavin Cromwell on his debut at Tipperary, the Ardad gelding filled out the same position at Cork last time out and on each occasion, he left the impression he could do with a stiffer test.
Obviously, an extra furlong would be a wiser solution, but today’s five-furlongs is one of the most demanding in Ireland and in any case, he has the experience and form under his belt to counteract that slight negative.
BAKER BLUE – ½ point each-way@8-1
3.30 EPSOM – THE DERBY
A bit of throwback to Derby’s of yesteryear with a big field due to go to post, a Guineas winner locking horns against the form of all the preeminent middle-distance trials and a sense that almost anything could win on ground that is likely to make it a proper test.
The starting point for most will be Ruling Court and whether he will stay the trip on rain-softened ground. Personally, I’d have my doubts and of his main market rivals, I’d sooner trust Delacroix given that he has already proven he stays well in both the Derrinstown and Ballysax Stakes respectively.
Significantly, Ryan Moore has chosen to ride Delacroix over winter Derby favourite The Lion In Winter but when you weigh up their respective credentials and how they arrive at Epsom, it probably isn’t the biggest shock in the world he has gone down the route of the safest option.
Pride Of Arras won a good-looking Dante in taking fashion in a period when his stable couldn’t buy a winner and he will have his supporters, but he does have to overcome the dreaded stall 16, a position which no Derby winner has come from since stalls were introduced in 1967.
Of those beaten on the Knavesmire, runner-up Damysus has more than a reasonable chance of turning around the form given how his race panned out that day, it’s just a question of whether he will be fully effective on ground he has yet to encounter in his career.
The one runner in the field, however, who ticks most boxes is LAMBOURN (best price 12-1) and after flying under the radar for many weeks after his Chester Vase victory, he is now trading at the sort of price more reflective of his form and profile.
The gallop on the Roodee last time out was strong, thanks to the exploits of Convergent, and Aidan O’Brien’s colt relished the task at hand, staying on powerfully to engulf his main market rival in the latter stages.
Posting a smart speed figure, he proved that he not only stays a strongly run 1m4f well, but for a big horse, he had the balance to handle the tight contours of the track and being one of only two horses in the field (Al Wasl Storm the other) to have winning form over the trip, that fact has got to count for plenty in the final analysis.
Drawn in stall 10, amazingly, 11 winners have exited this box in The Derby to go on to score in recent times and having won on soft ground as a juvenile, all the stars seemed to be aligning for the son of Australia to put up a bold bid.
LAMBOURN – 1-point each-way@12-1 (four places)
4.15 EPSOM
Like most races at the Surrey venue, the weather is likely to have a big impact on the outcome and SMALL FRY (best price 3-1), proven under soft condition over today’s C&D, rates a strong choice to maintain his fine run of results over the past 12 months.
Gary & Josh Moore’s gelding had a nice spin around these contours on his seasonal bow back in April and that initial outing clearly did him the world of good at Chester next time.
One of only two seriously supported horses in a competitive-looking handicap (5-1 into 13-8) on the Roodee, the four-year-old gained the day over his main market rival and with the pair well clear of the rest, the result looked a totally believable one.
Although the runner-up poured cold water on that theory at Newmarlet next time, that view is a bit misleading as he pulled like a mustang in the early stages and it’s best to use the third horse as a guide, who run well at Leicester in midweek.
The more relevant point about Small Fry’s chances, however, stems from his suitability to today’s track, unlike many of his main rivals, and with his soft ground form on the Flat reading 331122, it’s hard to imagine he will be losing those impressive stats anytime soon under the prevailing conditions this afternoon.
SMALL FRY – 1-point win@3-1