DAILY RACING PREVIEW BY ANDY HOLDING
SATURDAY OCTOBER 18
For Once, Champions Day is set to be run on decent ground and although those conditions might not suit all, a level playing field can only be seen as a good thing as far as top quality Flat racing is concerned.
Although some connections will be cursing their luck, what we don’t want is watching the runners slogging it out on bottomless ground and there will also be a fresh strip, saved especially for this meeting over towards the far side which is likely to exploited by many.
The opening contest for the stayers (12.55) looks a golden opportunity for Trawlerman to end the season crowned as the champion in his division and a reproduction of either his win in the Gold Cup or Lonsdale at York last time out should prove to be good enough.
Although beaten far and square in this race last season, the ground conditions were far from ideal that day and it can also be argued, he is a much more mature and reliable conveyance as time has progressed.
His main danger according to the betting is Stay True but considering three-year-olds have an appalling record in this race over the years (0-20), Aidan O’Brien’s St Leger third might not necessary be capable of justifying that status.
The most logical solution for forecast/betting without the favourite players, therefore, looks to be stable mate to Trawlerman, Sweet William.
Runner-up in this race last season, he arrives here in peak form courtesy of victory in The Doncaster Cup and the time figure he posted suggested his performance was right up there with some of the best in his career.
Due to be roughed off for the season after that race, connections have clearly had a change of heart and providing he doesn’t end up giving too much ground away with his traditionally sluggish start, he has every chance of gaining a lion’s share of the prize money.
The second race on the card for two-year-olds (1.30) is a welcome addition to the usual six-race programme and it sees Words Of Truth as a very short-priced favourite.
A game winner of the Mill Reef at Newbury last time out, he clearly stands out on form and when you add into the mix, he also has a victory over today’s C&D under his belt, you can see why he is such a popular choice with the masses.
If there is to be a spoiler, DIVISION (best price 11-2) comes across as the one with most potential to improve to Group 3 standard and he makes plenty of appeal as a solid each-way alternative.
Steadily working his way through the ranks, William Haggas’ inmate impressed with the way he hit the line strong when accounting for a big field in a listed contest at York last week and the speed figure which he posted backed up the visual aspect of his display.
Although only one week on, clearly connections are happy to roll the dice, and this striking colt should in no way be underestimated.
DIVISION – 1-point each-way@11-2
It has been well documented, the sprinting division has been over the shop this season, with quite a few shock winners along the way and the latest version of the bingo-on-legs series looks equally confusing (2.05).
Interestingly, the stalls are positioned on the far aide this year, to coincide with the fresh strip of ground and whether that decision ends up influencing the outcome remains to be seen.
To confuse matters, most of the fancied runners are drawn high and with Art Power, Quinault and Witness Stand housed in stall 10, 15 and 19 respectively, those positioned around the likely front runners might end up being a decent spot.
With that in mind, KIND OF BLUE (best price 13-2) and KING CUAN (best price 18-1) should get the tow into the business end as desired and, at the prices, they make the most appeal.
The former won this race season and looks to have been campaigned specifically for a repeat bid.
He has only had two runs since mid-summer and both have suggested that he is coming to the boil nicely and housed with a trainer who has a tremendous overall record in this race, you get the feeling the son of Blue Point is going to be at fever pitch once again.
His effort in the Haydock Park Sprint last time out backed up that view and providing there is sufficient cut in the ground, James Fanshawe’s inmate has plenty in his favour to go close.
The latter needs a bit more explaining but on the evidence of his last two runs, the decision to bring him over the Irish Sea, which his handler does only every now and then, looks well and truly justified.
Undone by the (low) draw at Tipperary two starts ago, Paddy Twomey’s inmate once again did best of those poorly positioned at The Curragh last time and the way he charged home from the back of the field pointed towards a horse right at the peak of his powers.
Whether he ends up being good enough only time will tell, but he has a lovely high cruising speed to go in tandem with a nice change of gear and to all intents and purposes, he has a run style to blend in well with today’s track – which will be his first visit.
KIND OF BLUE – 1-point each-way@13-2 (four places)
KING CUAN – ½ point each-way@18-1 (four places)
Not a great race for fillies and mares defended their crown so that casts a slight shadow over Kalpana following up last year’s success (2.45).
On the flip side, she ran extremely well from a modest draw in the Arc and, being the only C&D winner in the field, that advantage/knowledge could count for plenty.
A good run over the Arc weekend has also been a rich source of winners at this meeting – 14 in total over the years – so it is a bit of mixed bag as far as the favourite is concerned.
Like many races on the round course at the Berkshire venue, the draw has played a significant role in the outcome, with winners in this race coming from 11, 10, 10, 8, 9, 11, 6, 8, 11 and 12 in the last ten years. By contrast, a horse coming out of stall one has never won this race in its 14 years history which could count against the well-fancied, Estrange.
Taking into consideration all the trends, One Look could end up being the value pick of the field and at the prices, you could worse than having a few quid on Paddy Twomey’s filly.
The only time she has run poorly in recent times, admittedly, was over today’s course but that effort was on fast ground over a mile and since then she has improved significantly for racing over further with ease underfoot.
Having nailed my colours to the mast with ROSALLION earlier in the week, I will be hoping and praying stall 15 of 16 doesn’t end up nailing him to the floor.
That said, he is drawn next to loads of fancied runners such as Field Of Gold, Never So Brave, Docklands, Facteur Chevel and if they all tuck in behind Fallen Angel (drawn 8), hopefully he won’t have too many excuses. At time of writing, 5-1 four places appeal as decent each-way value for a horse who always runs to a very high level.
The Champion Stakes has brought together a field befitting of the title and hopefully racegoers and fans will be treated to a tear-up between three of the best middle-distance horses in the world.
Currently the score is 1-1 between Ombudsman and Delacroix and a good deal depends on how this race pans out and who gets the smoothest passage.
The fact Delacroix has yet to run at Ascot and one of Ombudsman’s career best efforts came over the C&D might tip the balance in favour of John & Thady Gosden’s inmate and it hard to argue he isn’t the right favourite.
However, both must try and contain CALANDAGAN (best price 11-4) at a track where he excels and the French raider rates a strong choice to go one place better than he did last year.
Drawn in stall one twelve months ago, he also ended up challenging up the inside of the track which ultimately cost him any chance of repelling shock winner, Anmaat, but it was still a top-class effort under the circumstances and this year he seems better than ever.
His victories in the Grand Prix De Saint-Cloud and King George have cemented him as one of the best horses on the planet and with the likely strong pace hopefully setting the race up for a stayer of his magnitude, the son of Gleneagles can come through powerfully at the business end.
CALANDAGAN – 1-point win@11-4
On the something-for-everyone card, it is nice that a good old fashioned Ascot handicap is the nightcap and many of the usual suspects at the Berkshire venue are in attendance.
A good guide to this race has been the seven-furlong handicap at the previous meeting and Native Warrior will be a popular choice with many to add his name to the five who used that contest as a stepping stone to glory.
A strong traveller who suits Ascot well, it will just be a case of whether Karl Burke’s inmate sees out the trip.
The other similar race to provide a clue is the one won by SHOUT (best price 6-1) a month ago and Simon & Ed Crisford’s inmate gains the vote to repeat the dose.
The way he cruised through that well-run affair (strong speed figure) before going on to record and effortless success left a last impression, and he has been saved for this race ever since.
David O’Meara has landed this race three times in the last ten years (Lord Glitters, Shelir and Escobar) so both of his representatives, CERULEAN BAY (best price 11-1) and Bopedro must be shortlist material.
Of the pair, the former makes more appeal on account of the fact he tends to win more often, and the latest of his two recent victories was recorded in a quick time.
However, his best speed figure notably came over today’s course when runner-up to Ebt’s Guard back in July and now in better form that he was then, he has a decent chance of improving on his two previous efforts on the straight track.
SHOUT – 1-point each-way@6-1 (five places)
CERULEAN BAY – ½ point each-way@11-1 (five places)